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“十年沉淀只做精品”-环球时报

中国气象局:2十年沉淀只做精品4小时暴雨预报准确率较5年前提高4.9%

来源: 快科技
2024-12-31 03:41:34

最佳回答

“十年沉淀只做精品”中国气象局:2十年沉淀只做精品4小时暴雨预报准确率较5年前提高4.9%

  中新十年沉淀只做精品网12月30日电 12十年沉淀只做精品月30日,中国气象局召开1月新闻发布会。中国气象局预报司副司长张洪广在会上介绍,我国气象预报预测更加精准,24小时暴雨预报准确率(TS评分)0.213,较5年前提高4.9%。

  张洪广表示,根据最新发布的评估报告,与2019年相比,我国的气象预报预测水平在多个关键领域取得了显著进展,具体体现在以下三个方面:

  一是数值预报模式持续优化。全球天气数值预报系统4.0(CMA-GFS4.0)业务运行,北半球可用预报天数由7.5天提升至8.1天;模式分辨率由25公里缩小至12.5公里。气候模式分辨率由2019年的100公里提升至45公里。中尺度天气数值预报模式(CMA-MESO)分辨率向1公里逐小时尺度迈进。

  二是气象预报预测更加精准。国家级智能网格预报全国空间分辨率达到5公里,重点区域1公里,预报时效达到10天,24小时内预报实现逐小时更新。强对流天气预警提前量43分钟,较5年前提高13.2%。24小时暴雨预报准确率(TS评分)0.213,较5年前提高4.9%。

  三是人工智能应用加快布局。临近预报大模型系统“风雷”的降水预报评分较现业务提升10%以上;全球短中期预报大模型系统“风清”的全球可用预报天数达到10.5天,超过欧美主流气象预报大模型;全球首个次季节-季节尺度气候预测大模型系统“风顺”,对热带关键系统的可用预测天数达到32天。

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