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解惑“porinvidio”-梳理天下新闻

报告:明年上porinvidio半年中国部分核心城市房价或将逐步“止跌”

来源: 新浪新闻
2024-12-20 02:30:56

最佳回答

“porinvidio”报告:明年上porinvidio半年中国部分核心城市房价或将逐步“止跌”

  中新porinvidio社北京12月19日电 (记者 porinvidio庞无忌)中指研究院19日发布的《中国房地产市场2024总结&2025展望》报告认为,2025年上半年中国部分核心城市房价或将逐步“止跌”。

  “2024中国房地产大数据年会暨2025中国房地产市场趋势报告会”当日在北京举办,上述报告在此间发布。中指研究院常务副院长黄瑜在会上表示,2025年房地产销售规模仍有下行压力,政策落实是促销售恢复的关键;商品房销售均价预计结构性微涨,部分核心城市二手房价有望率先止跌。

  她表示,一方面,随着支持政策密集出台,居民房价预期明显改善。另一方面,随着房贷利率的持续下调,居民购房成本正逐步降低,目前居民购房综合资金成本约在2.6%至2.8%之间,与租售比(2.1%左右)的差距正在逐步缩小,将有利于促进房价企稳。

  从城市房地产市场来看,报告指出,政策空间及力度、市场供求关系、城市聚集效应等是影响城市楼市恢复节奏的核心因素。

  其中,一线城市辐射范围广,人口吸引力强,购房需求旺盛,11月份还下调了交易税费。报告认为,北上深限购仍有优化空间,市场或率先止跌回稳。杭州、成都、西安、合肥、苏州等强二线城市产业基础较好,人口吸引力较强,且库存压力相对可控,未来市场恢复节奏或相对较快。而南京、武汉、郑州、无锡等城市库存水平较高、去化压力较大,重庆人口流出规模较大,这部分二线城市市场恢复节奏或相对较慢。

  从中长期需求空间来看,报告认为,房地产行业正进入新的发展阶段。据中指研究院初步测算,“十五五”期间,中国新增城镇人口、居住面积提升以及拆迁改造等带来住房需求合计约有50.6亿平方米,年均仍有10亿平方米左右增量空间。(完)

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