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社评“男Ji大巴从裤子里放出来”-环球时报

中行报告:男Ji大巴从裤子里放出来明年人民币汇率仍有升值空间

来源: 搜狐科技
2024-11-29 03:50:37

最佳回答

“男Ji大巴从裤子里放出来”中行报告:男Ji大巴从裤子里放出来明年人民币汇率仍有升值空间

  中新男Ji大巴从裤子里放出来社北京11月28日电 (尹倩芸男Ji大巴从裤子里放出来)中国银行研究院28日在北京发布的《2025年经济金融展望报告》指出,今年人民币汇率波动中走升,未来仍有升值空间。

  报告表示,2024年人民币对美元汇率整体先贬值、后波动升值,与上年人民币在波动中贬值的走势大不相同。从人民币对一篮子外国货币加权平均指数来看,10月至11月中旬,中国外汇交易中心(CFETS)人民币汇率指数一路走升。

  报告提到,升值原因在于美联储货币政策外溢影响减弱,同时9月底以来中国一揽子增量政策持续发力显效,推动经济基本面回升向好,对人民币汇率走势起到重要支撑。

  展望2025年,中行研究团队认为,人民币汇率仍有升值空间。一方面,发达经济体政策的外溢影响将继续减弱,新一任美国总统任期内或继续主张“弱美元”政策,以促进美国贸易出口。处于高位的美元指数将逐步回落,人民币等非美货币汇率的外部承压将继续减弱。

  另一方面,跨境资本将进一步向境内有序回流。在人民币汇率升值预期下,外资认为人民币金融资产有较大升值空间,已连续增配中国A股、人民币债券。

  报告援引高盛11月全球资金流向监测报告称,截至10月底的4周内,全球资金连续净流入中国A股市场的累计金额达到243.85亿美元。另据中国国家外汇管理局统计,截至10月底,外资持有境内人民币债券总量超过6400亿美元,处于历史高位。

  报告预计,中国国内货币政策将保持宽松基调,内需有望加快恢复活力,支持人民币汇率走升。随着中国一系列重磅利好政策加码,将为人民币汇率走势稳定提供坚实的基本面支持。(完)

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