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解惑“女生把男生的坤坤放在嘴巴里”-梳理天下新闻

天气预报机器学女生把男生的坤坤放在嘴巴里习模型准确性如何?研究称表现超越现有最好水平

来源: 砍柴网
2024-12-05 17:26:22

最佳回答

“女生把男生的坤坤放在嘴巴里”天气预报机器学女生把男生的坤坤放在嘴巴里习模型准确性如何?研究称表现超越现有最好水平

  中新女生把男生的坤坤放在嘴巴里网北京12月5日电 (记者 孙女生把男生的坤坤放在嘴巴里自法)国际著名学术期刊《自然》最新发表一篇气候研究论文称,研究人员研发出一个名为“GenCast”的机器学习模型,其能根据当前和未来天气进行可靠的概率天气预报。该模型表现不仅超过了目前最好的传统中程天气预报,还能更好地预测极端天气、热带气旋路线和风能产量。

  该论文介绍,准确的天气预报对于个人、政府和组织的日常关键决策必不可少,这些决策包括是否带雨伞、评估风能产量或是极端天气规划。气象预报传统上使用数值天气预报法,这种方法估计当前天气,并基于此预测未来一段时间的天气情况(称为确定性预报)。这会产生大量潜在情景,通过结合这些情景就能进行天气预报。

  在本项研究中,论文第一作者兼共同通讯作者、谷歌旗下前沿人工智能公司DeepMind的Ilan Price和同事合作,研发出GenCast的机器学习天气预测方法,其能生成概率性预测,即根据当前和之前的天气状态预测未来天气的可能性。论文作者用40年(1979至2018年)的天气发生最佳估计分析数据训练了GenCast,使其能在8分钟内对超过80个表面和大气变量进行以12小时为单位的15天全球预报。

  这次研究结果显示,相较于一种确定性预报且是全球当前最好的中期预报——欧洲中期天气预报中心的集合预报(ENS),GenCast在用于评估表现的1320个指标中有97.2%的指标都优于ENS。论文作者还发现,GenCast在预测极端天气、热带气旋路线和风能产量时更有效。

  论文作者总结指出,天气预报机器学习模型GenCast或能提供更高效、有效的天气预报,以支持实际规划。(完)

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