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社评“积积对积积不用载”-知识课堂

重庆发布AI积积对积积不用载气象预报大模型 聚焦成渝致灾降水精准预报

来源: IT之家
2024-12-27 14:41:51

最佳回答

“积积对积积不用载”重庆发布AI积积对积积不用载气象预报大模型 聚焦成渝致灾降水精准预报

  中新积积对积积不用载网重庆12月26日电 积积对积积不用载(梁钦卿)2024西部科技创新生态发展大会26日在重庆举行。重庆市气象局在会上正式发布天资12h人工智能(AI)气象预报大模型,聚焦成渝地区致灾降水精准预报。

  该大模型以华为盘古全球气象大模型为基础,融合成渝地区地面气象实况和高精度地形数据,采用全球与区域大模型融合架构,加持三维地球特定变压器(3DEST)模型、多源异构数据融合技术、强降水小样本处理技术,为提升预报精准率提供了良好的底层支撑。

12月26日,重庆市气象局发布天资12h人工智能气象预报大模型。雷键 摄

  天资12h人工智能气象预报大模型已实现每6小时预报成渝地区未来12小时地面降水、气温、风、相对湿度,时空分辨率3小时、3公里;同时可预报高空13个气压层的位势高度、比湿、温度和风,时空分辨率3小时、25公里。

  为什么预报的时段是未来12小时?致灾降水数值模式与人工智能融合预报关键技术研究重点实验室主任高郁东介绍,该大模型的预报时效主要是未来2小时到12小时之间。目前2小时以内的时段主要靠气象观测数据分析,因为这一时段对于气象灾害来说已非常临近,大部分天气变化都能观测得到。12小时以后的预报还是依靠传统的数值天气模式,现有AI大模型技术还需更多研究和迭代。

  “本次发布的大模型,可以应用在超大城市治理、低空经济以及危岩地灾预警等领域。”重庆市气象台台长张焱介绍,以低空经济为例,气象条件是影响低空飞行安全的重要因素,由于低空飞行全程处于对流强、变化剧烈的大气环境中,从起飞到降落都需要高度关注气象条件,AI气象预报大模型为无人机等低空飞行器的平稳运行提供了保障。

  在预报准确率上,天资12h人工智能气象预报大模型前6小时降雨预报准确率较传统预报最高提升36%。在计算效率上,传统区域数值预报模式需用时1小时,大模型只需用时10分钟。下一步,该大模型将实现每小时更新未来12小时成渝地区1公里、1小时分辨率的天气预报。(完)

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