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“中国X站 免费版”-知识课堂

专家:非银中国X站 免费版同业存款定价规范不会导致银行缺负债

来源: 财闻网
2024-12-05 03:09:04

最佳回答

“中国X站 免费版”专家:非银中国X站 免费版同业存款定价规范不会导致银行缺负债

  中新中国X站 免费版网北京12月4日电 (记者 中国X站 免费版夏宾)近日,市场利率定价自律机制公众号发布了《关于优化非银同业存款利率自律管理的倡议》和《关于在存款服务协议中引入“利率调整兜底条款”的自律倡议》。

  上述倡议将非银同业活期存款利率纳入自律管理,规范非银同业定期存款提前支取的定价行为;银行应在协议中加入“利率调整兜底条款”,确保协议存续期间,银行存款挂牌利率或存款利率内部授权上限等的调整,能及时体现在按协议发生的实际存款业务中。

  华源证券固收分析师廖志明认为,非银同业存款定价规范不会导致银行缺负债。部分投资者认为,非银同业存款定价规范会导致银行存款流失。“我们认为,实际影响是反直觉的,资金最终都落地在银行体系。非银同业存款定价规范非但不会导致银行缺存款,反而会缓解银行一般性存款压力,减缓一般性存款向非银同业存款的转化,降低银行负债成本。”

  那么,未来同业存款将如何定价?廖志明预计,非银同业活期存款利率将全面降至央行7天逆回购利率及以下,当前定价区间为0至1.5%。这大幅压缩了一般存款与非银同业存款的套利空间。同业约期存款或将消亡。要求非银同业定期存款提前支取利率不高于超额存款准备金利率(当前为0.35%)堵上了套利漏洞,不然,非银同业活期存款可能转向定期。

  目前,非银同业存款规模多大?廖志明表示,截至2024年10月末,金融机构非银同业存款余额达31.2万亿元,其中,非银同业活期规模或达15万亿元。我们预计当前股票及期货保证金存款规模5万亿元左右;2024年第三季度全市场公募基金持仓银行存款合计7.31万亿元,2024年第三季度银行理财持有的银行存款规模或达8.2万亿元。

  他进一步称,定价规范对现金类产品影响甚大。现金管理类理财及货币基金监管规定基本一致,投资流动性受限资产不能超过产品资产净值的10%。本次规范后,非银同业定期存款皆为流动性受限资产,现金类产品投资比例不能超10%,且非银同业活期存款利率预计将全面下降至1.5%及以下,带动货币市场资产收益率显著下行。

  此外,货币基金费前收益率降幅或达30个基点,降费压力上升。现金类产品收益率大降将缓解银行个人活期存款的流失压力,现金类产品规模增长预计将明显放缓。(完)

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