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解惑“7x7x7x任意槽”-环球时报

专家:全球牛肉“7x7x7x任意槽牛市”行情未来可期

来源: 潇湘晨报
2024-11-27 11:03:10

最佳回答

“7x7x7x任意槽”专家:全球牛肉“7x7x7x任意槽牛市”行情未来可期

  中新7x7x7x任意槽社北京11月24日电 (记者 7x7x7x任意槽陈溯)当前,美国、加拿大等国牛肉价格呈持续上涨态势,巴西牛肉价格今年6月以来连续5个月上涨,累计涨幅达29.2%。全球牛肉市场后期走势如何?24日,中国农业科学院专家分析指出,全球牛肉“牛市”行情未来可期。

  中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所研究员杨春表示,近期主产国牛肉市场正在经历“牛市”。受干旱天气影响下饲草供应趋紧、成本增加等因素影响,巴西活牛及牛肉价格持续上涨。相关数据显示,2024年11月14日,巴西圣保罗活牛价格为每公斤3.95美元,同比涨24.6%;受干旱影响下牛群规模缩减等因素影响,美国牛肉价格保持上涨,美国牛肉零售价格从2023年5月以来,结束了连续8个月同比持续为负格局,逐月保持上涨,2024年1至9月平均价格为每公斤17.63美元,同比上涨6.1%。此外,加拿大、澳大利亚活牛价格也明显上涨。

  杨春表示,短期来看,增产国与减产国变幅相抵,2024年全球牛肉产量将基本稳定,全球牛肉市场将呈紧平衡。综合美国农业部(USDA)、全球农业信息网(GAIN)相关预测,2024年全球牛肉产量将保持稳定,增产国巴西、中国、印度、澳大利亚的牛肉产量增幅被减产国美国、阿根廷、加拿大、欧盟牛肉产量减幅抵消。

  中长期来看,牛肉生产大国巴西、中国可能存在生产趋势逆转的情况,由当前的产量增加国转变为减产国。巴西受2024年下半年干旱影响,肉牛生产方式发生改变,预测2025年肉牛屠宰量将有所减少,牛肉产量将下降1%。中国受2023年以来肉牛养殖效益持续下降,使得肉牛养殖周转加快、部分肉牛提前淘汰等情况影响,未来几年产量可能出现阶段性减少。与此同时,受干旱影响下肉牛养殖规模缩减、减碳、动物福利等因素影响,未来美国、阿根廷、加拿大、欧盟牛肉产量可能继续减少,2025年全球牛肉产量将下降1%。

  “这将加剧全球牛肉供应偏紧局面,再加上肉牛产能恢复时间较长,未来全球牛肉价格或将在较长时间内保持周期性上涨的趋势。”杨春说。(7x7x7x任意槽完)

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